Nothing can perhaps illustrate the bizarre situation, that exists
in the Middle East in Spring 2008, than two events, which occurred
almost simultaneously, seemingly on two different planets, but
a mere seventy kilometers from each other, on Wednesday evening.
In Jerusalem, under a relaxed atmosphere of feted tranquility,
among dignitaries celebrating Israel's 60th birthday, two emotionally
engulfed "lame ducks", US President George W Bush and
Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, showered each other with almost
painfully embarrassing superlatives. At precisely the same time,
in Ashkelon, on the Mediterranean sea side- an Iranian rocket,
fired by Hamas from Gaza, slammed into a human packed infirmary,
seriously wounding scores of innocent women and children. The
grotesque scenes, depicted live on TV screens clearly demonstrated
the virtual dance macabre, under which the leaderless people of
the Middle East are living these days: lot's of irresponsible
palaver, eye wash and illusion, but little hope.
As if to accentuate the utter bankruptcy of President
Bush's virtually impotent foreign policy in the Middle East, the
current fiasco in Beirut has added another "lame duck"
leader to his ludicrous team of losers.
The Hezbollah "Blitz" on the Sunni quarters
in Beirut, last week, has not only caused severe shockwaves inside
Lebanon, but clearly demonstrated Washington's dangerous lack
of determination to meet such contingencies with an immediate
show of force. In fact, not only the Bush Administration, but
the entire Sunni world remained passive, apart from irrelevant
rhetoric, which has convinced the Ayatollah's in Tehran and Bashar
Assad in Damascus, not to mention their vassal, Hassan Nasrallah
that they could get away with anything they wished, in humiliating
their hapless pro-Western adversaries. While Beirut burned- all
that the West and the Sunni Arab leaders could offer was shedding
some consolatory 'crocodile tears' to the embattled Prime Minister
Fouad Seniora.
Recent events in Gaza, the West Bank, Baghdad and
now, Lebanon, could serve as a prefect example to what extent
the Bush administration "Pax Americana" has already
deteriorated the turbulent Middle East-onto the brink of total
political chaos.
In fact, by failing in every way, the Bush administration has
proven itself abysmal in executing it's own coherent Middle East
policy- which has already proved disastrous to the entire region.
The stark reality is, that President George W Bush,
after two botched terms in office, is leaving behind a lot of
scorched earth here. The situation in Iraq is dangerously gridlocked;
Iran is still actively pursuing its nuclear program; al-Qaeda
continues to threaten all Western values. The illusory two-state
solution for Israel and Palestine is still far from being implemented,
if it ever will be. His push for democratic elections in the territories
has produced Hamastan in Gaza, a dangerous destabilization of
a Lebanese political balance in favor of Iranian-backed Hezbollah
and even the dramatic rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Mubarak's
Egypt.
Washington's irresolute actions in the strategic
Gulf Region, have already brought about a dangerous shift towards
a more and more dominating Shi'ite hegemony bid, for renewed religious
loyalty among the Gulf States Shi'ite population minorities.
If the new incoming US administration will fail to rally the 'moderate'
Sunni leadership in time, the Tehran Ayathollah's under Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad will no doubt exert a massive onslaught on the Sunni
Gulf region, extending their long-aimed strategy of the so-called
"Shi'ite Crescent" from Iran, to the Gulf States brim,
over southern Iraq, through Syria-to a Hezbollah-ruled, Lebanon
and if not stopped by a determined Israeli countermove, the Iranian-backed
Gaza Strip forward base on Egypt's doorstep.
The root of all this evil lies at the epic failure of Bush's democratization
agenda as a regional strategy.
The Bush Administration allowed the participation
of the terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah in democratic
elections in the Palestinian Authority and Lebanon without insisting
that they give up their arms, recognize Israel's right to exist
or renounce the killing of innocent civilians. Both Hamas and
Hezbollah have already become major players in the Mid East power
struggle, serving the strategic aims of Tehran and all this, thanks
to George W Bush and Condoleezza Rice's shortsighted policy and
total ignorance of the traditional local affairs, in this highly
turbulent and explosive region.
Perhaps the latest and most dramatic development,
is currently happening in Lebanon, where the Iranian backed Hezbollah-led
Shi'ite opposition is on the way to obtain dominant political
power, in determining the sensitive balance, which has maintained
Lebanon, for decades, as a semi-democratic Arab state with a pro-western
orientation.
But there is much more to this drama, which may,
for the time being subside into another short-termed lull, before
the real storm breaks, when Tehran gives the order. Hezbollah
has shown, what it can do, just as Hamas did last June, in its
Gaza lightning take-over.
Hezbollah’s brilliant demonstration in taking
over western and central Beirut, within hours, has had the effect
of adding another link to the pro-Iranian chain already encircling
Israel. In many ways it may become a more damaging setback for
Israel’s national security than the Palestinian Hamas' seizure
of the Gaza Strip. If not stopped in time, by determined action
backed by the US, Israel will be confronted, in foreseeable future,
by multi-front and multi-dimensional threats, ranging from Iranian
ballistic missiles, with or without non-conventional warheads,
medium-range rockets from Lebanon and Syria, with or without chemical
weapons grade capabilities and short-range rockets from the Gaza
Strip, or even from the West Bank.
This presents a challenge to Israel's national security,
second to none in the world and only a highly convincible deterrent,
led by a determined leadership can prevent this from happening.
Unfortunately, the current political situation in Israel is highly
dubious. Israel’s prime minister, defense minister and foreign
minister are all too busy with the political fallout of the bribery
case against Ehud Olmert to lift a finger to arrest Lebanon’s
decline to a Tehran satellite before it is too late - any more
than Hamas was stopped from developing into a major military menace.
Once the celebrations in Jerusalem will subside and Israel returns
to reality, it will be time for its leadership to wake up, and
gird to face the challenges- before it will be too late.