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Little attention has been paid to the potential role of ethnic
minorities in the Iran crisis, particularly of the Iranian Arab
minority, centered in the southwestern province of Khuzestan.
Events in the oil-rich province bordering Iraq could serve as
a harbinger of U.S.-British intentions in Iran, and expose Khuzestan
as Iran's Achilles Heel. Recently, a series of bombings and
ethnic clashes has begun to show that something is definitely
happening in Khuzestan, which could be an early warning of things
to come.
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a series of bombings and ethnic clashes has begun
to show that something is definitely happening in Khuzestan,
which could be an early warning of things to come
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One look at the Iraq-Iran
map could suffice to sustain such a theory. Khuzestan
is a small part in south west of Iran which was once part
of the great and independent government of Elam in ancient
times. The province's military topography makes it ideal
for an attack from the south-west. |
 The
large plains there, bordering with the Iraqi marshes and the
mountain regions situated to its north and eastern part, being
part of the Zagros mountain ranges, shield it from the interior.
This already made Khuzestan the first objective for Saddam Hussein's
assault on Iran in 1980.
Khuzestan has important advantages for the US from a military
point of view. It has a long border with Iraq, and the terrain
is flat, so an American military invasion could be mounted and
carried out relatively swiftly. It is a short drive from Basra,
the main city in southern Iraq, to Ahvaz, the Khuzestan capital.
The US could carry out this kind of partial invasion in the
name of "stabilizing" Iraq.
In fact, The reliable website Globalsecurity has even named
such a strategic move the "Khuzestan Gambit" under
which U.S. and British forces aiding an Arab uprising would
turn Khuzestan into a de facto autonomous protectorate of "Arabistan"
or "Ahwaz," in order to take control of the country's
oil-dependent economy. Whether such a move could be implemented,
remains to be carefully contemplated, taking into consideration
that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC - Pasdaran-e
Inqilab) could be a hard nut to crack if they decide to
stand up and fight. For one, some 16,238 hectares of minefields
in Khuzestan are still spread over a vast sector of the region,
bordering with Iraq. Only last May, Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Rahim-Safavi claimed that
the forces of Islam "are fully prepared to defend the Islamic
homeland , as Khuzestan Province has always been a target for
foreign greed".
In fact, any American venture, should it come to be, could
face a surprise, pre-emptive move by the Iranian Pasdaran, before
it is implemented! Iran's primary target could be a long aspired
annexation of southern Iraq and its oil wealth at Basra. The
newly created so-called "Arvand Free Zone" is stretching
30km from Abadan along the Shatt Al-Arab to the land border
between Basrah and Khuzestan. This is in two segments: an island
and adjacent land measuring 30 square km and a strip of land
north of Khorramshahr measuring 25 square km. literally within
a stone's throw of Basrah. Now a large part of the Khuzestan-Basrah
border is about to become an exclusive military zone, which
will allow Iran to effectively annex Basra, in a relatively
swift operation. The port city of Khorramshar was the scene
of some of the most intense fighting during the Iran-Iraq War
(1980-88). It is regarded as one of the Middle East's most strategic
points. On February 1986, 30,000 Iranian troops crossed the
Shatt Al-Arab in a surprise attack to invade and occupy Iraq's
Al-Faw peninsula and create a bridgehead for further advances
into southern Iraq, only to be held-up through US political
intervention.
Not only for military and political reasons is Southern annexation
imperative for Iran's economy. Contrary to most assessments,
it is little known that Iran must have Basrah because of future
energy shortages in Iran. A John Hopkins energy assessment,
just released, indicates that a steep and irreversible near
term decline in Iran's own oil production (50 per cent decline
in five years) is underway!
Thus, it is of no surprise that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards'
elite Qods Force, based in Ahwaz City and the Revolutionary
Guards Corps' (IRGC) Fajr Garrison deployed in Khuzestan, serves
as the organisation's main headquarters, running the vast underground
network in Iraq supporting Iran loyalists among the Arab Shiite
insurgencies, which could already prepare the groundwork for
a military operation into Iraq, when the timing is right. This
could even happen sooner than expected.
According to predictions, President Bush has decided to escalate
against Muqtada al Sadr by committing an additional 20,000 US
troops to Iraq to break up his militia and apprehend him in
Baghdad. For this offensive, the US Army has already shifted
its main bulk of forces from the combat zone in Western Iraq
to the Capital. (Defense -update Analysis -December 03, 2006:
Western
Iraq - becoming Al Qaeda's Safe Haven?) But experts believe,
that even if the new venture will succeed, Iraq will then fall
into Iran’s orbit. Iran could then take Basrah
and southern Iraq, with Sadr’s forces out of the way.
By taking Basra, Iran would also control the US’s main
exit point from Iraq as the battle for Iraq focuses mainly on
the Battle for Baghdad. It goes without saying, that the consequences
to the Coalition would be catastrophic!
But on the other side of the hill matters are not that simple
either. Much of the civil unrest seen in Iran over the past
few months has occurred in Khuzestan, which was once an autonomous
Arab emirate protected by the British and known as Arabistan
or Al-Ahwaz. until it was over-run by Reza Pahlavi’s forces
in 1925. Here, Iranian Arabs have reacted to state terrorism
with mass protests, which remain largely unreported in the Western
news media. Indeed, for a short period in April 2005, the Iranian
government even lost total control over large parts of Khuzestan
in an Arab uprising. The riots became sparked by the leaking
of a top secret memo written by former Vice-President Ali Abtahi
which outlined a 10-year plan for the ‘ethnic restructuring’
of Khuzestan to reduce the Arab population from 70 per cent
of the total population to less than a third.
 In
perhaps a last moment effort, to pacify the outrageous Khuzestanis,
President Mahmoud President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his cabinet
ministers arrived in the southwestern Khuzestan province last
Tuesday on a four-day visit. Ethnic unrest is a problem throughout
Iran and the regime traditionally attributes this to foreign
agitation. Two former visits to Khuzestan were cancelled abruptly,
when the president's motorcade was ambushed in the Province
on 14 December 2005.
US new strategy evolving into an open conflict with Iran, would
not only aim to stem its nuclear ambition, which at this stage
could become of less than immediate concern, based on assumptions,
that this would still take time to mature. But to prevent an
Iraqi offensive into Basrah Province, should become top priority
to US strategy in Iraq and the Gulf region, in order to, at
least secure a safe "exit gate" for a planned and
orderly withdrawal from Mesopotamia when this becomes due.
In any such contingencies, Khuzestan presents the the lynchpin
of any western ground operation. According to Zolton Grossman
in his provocative article published last year, " the first
step taken by an invading force would be to occupy Iran's oil-rich
Khuzestan Province, securing the sensitive Straits of Hormuz
and cutting off the Iranian military's oil ". With sufficient
airpower deployed already in the region, the carrier groups
can launch massive strikes supporting an even limited ground
offensive. Of especial is the latest deployment of the USS Bataan
Strike group carrying over 2,000 Marines of 26th Marine Expeditionary
Unit. Equipped to insert forces ashore by helicopter, landing
craft and amphibious vehicles. The Bataan is also equipped with
helicopters and fast hovercraft capable of landing thousands
of Marines on beaches and providing the landing with superb
air cover support. The Bataan
Strike Group is commanded by Capt. Donna Looney and includes
Amphibious Squadron Two, Bataan, USS Shreveport (LPD 12), USS
Oak Hill (LSD 51) , USS Vella Gulf (CG 72) , USS Nitze (DDG
94) , USS Underwood (FFG 36) , and USS Scranton (SSN 756).
No doubt the situation may well clear up by coming Wednesday,
when US President George W Bush will offer some of his new strategic
plans solving the Iraq fiasco.
Read David Eshel's past commentary here
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Command.
Lt. Gen. David Petraeus (left), who replaces General William
Casey, is an Iraq veteran , who headed the effort to train Iraqi
security forces, will take Casey's place as ground commander
in Iraq. Admiral. William Fallon (right), a Navy veteran who
to some may be an odd choice to oversee a ground conflict in
a nearly landlocked country. But perhaps the new plan is based
on a strong naval and air support for an offensive option, which
has sofar been neglected, through protracted coalition-led counter
insurgency warfare, which bogged down thousands of troops in
a losing battle for Iraq.
