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US officials confirm at least one American AC-130 gunship (video)
strike against al Qaeda fugitives in Somalia last Monday night.
Witnesses reported that two such strikes left several casualties.
The Bahrain-based US navy’s Fifth Fleet announced Tuesday
that the USS carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower has joined three other
warships in the coastal waters off Somalia "due to rapidly
developing events in this area." According to intelligence
sources, aircraft from the carrier had already begun flying
over the country in a series of pre-strike intelligence-gathering
missions. The Eisenhower’s complement of F/A-18 Hornet
and Superhornet fighter-bombers, EA-6B Prowler electronic warfare
aircraft and E-2C Hawkeye airborne command-and-control craft
had been operating recently over Afghanistan.
US Navy spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Charlie Brown said the guided-missile
cruisers Bunker Hill and Anzio and the amphibious landing ship
Ashland were already patrolling the Somali coast in search of
al-Qaida members thought to be fleeing Somalia in the wake of
Ethiopia’s December invasion.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that US special forces have joined
the hunt for long wanted al Qaeda leaders. Latest Intelligence
sources identify three top al Qaeda leaders as Abdullah Fazul,
from the Comoro Islands, Ali Saleh Nabhan, from Kenya and Abu
Taha al-Sudani, from Sudan. Fazul, the most senior among them,
masterminded the 1998 US embassy bombings in Dar es Salaam and
Nairobi, the 1996 Ethiopian Airline hijack in which four Israeli
air industry directors and 3 Israeli civilians were murdered.
The October 2000 ramming of the USS Cole in Aden Harbor also
goes to Fazul's notorious account. One of the men is believed,
by Israeli intelligence to have coordinated the 2002 attacks
on the 2002 Mombassa Paradise hotel and the aborted twin shoulder-launched
SA-7 SAM attack on the Israeli Arkia airliner. A major target
for the hunt seems to be Ras Chiamboni peninsula, which sits
on the Indian ocean, and is situated less than two miles from
the Kenyan border.
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|  However,
regional analysts warn that the United States' decision to bomb
Islamists holed up in a corner of Somalia near the border with
Kenya may yet prove a high-risk tactic which could ignite an
Iraqi-style insurgency across a large area of strategic East
Africa. Moreover, the surprising American move, should it remain
an isolated incident, could backfire, just as did the Israeli
fiasco in Lebanon, last summer. As Israel was extremely reserved
in re-entering the Lebanese quagmire, the US are highly reluctant
to enter into a high-risk game, based on their painful past
experiences, in Somalia. One has only to remember the futile
American role in the hunt for for one Somali warlord which resulted
in the "Black Hawk Down" incident in the early nineties,
when 18 US special forces troops were killed in downtown Mogadishu,
an incident, for which Osama Bin Laden subsequently claimed
credit.
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it remains highly questionable whether sufficient
encouragement will follow for a combat effective military
contingent to be deployed in Somalia and for that matter
to the Horn of Africa, in spite of its sensitive strategic
posture.
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In an urgent meeting convened
last Friday in neighboring Kenya, the U.S., United Nations,
European Union, African Union, Arab League and several
East African states called for immediate funding for an
8,000-strong peacekeeping mission in Somalia. The talks
were led by the top U.S. diplomat for Africa, Jendayi
Frazer. Unfortunately, so far, only Uganda has pledged
sending troops. |
The U.S. has authorized a total of $40 million for development
aid and the peacekeeping force. Based on recent experiences
in NATO out-of-area deployment to Afghanistan, it remains highly
questionable whether sufficient encouragement will follow for
a combat effective military contingent to be deployed in Somalia
and for that matter to the Horn of Africa, in spite of its sensitive
strategic posture. Failure to act without delay energetically,
would almost certainly see al Qaeda's establishing a Taliban-model
base in this region, with catastrophic consequences for American
and NATO military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, not to
mention Iran. With Al Qaeda actively operating in this sensitive
area, maintaining a safe logistic life-line to sustain such
activities would be placed in jeopardy, requiring huge naval
and military efforts, which are already stretched to maximum,
in order to secure safe passage of supporting elements by sea.
In fact, the present conflict in Somalia may only become the
prelude for much more sinister forebodings, if Washington refuses
to act more decisively, in a last minute effort, preventing
al Qaeda building its new strategic base around the Horn of
Africa. Regional analysts fear, that if this fails, it may already
be too late.
One of the major concerns to military planners, is an Al Qaeda
And Maritime Terrorism upsurge, presenting a nightmare scenario,
to the strategic allied shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Indian
Ocean, en-route to the Persian Gulf.
Although Al Qaeda's former chief of naval operations was "Prince
of the Sea," Abdulrahim Mohammed Abda al-Nasheri (also
known as Mulla Ahmad Belal), is fortunately in custody, this
does not mean that another chief has not taken over his notorious
duties. Al Qaeda has already demonstrated its maritime terror
capability. Al-Nasheri masterminded the October 12, 2000, USS
Cole. Seventeen months later, it scored another grim success
against a French oil tanker on the morning of October 6, 2002.
The 299,364 DWT-ton Limburg, was rammed by an explosives-laden
boat off the port of Ash Shihr at Mukallah, offshore Aden.
The ultimate nightmare to security specialists, is a growing
threat from nuclear devices smuggled on ships, seized by maritime
piracy in the high seas, from terrorists havens, operating from
clandestine shore bases, like Ras Kamboni Island. And there
is no shortage in professional skill either. The formidably
skilled, organized, and equipped maritime arm of the Liberation
Tamil Tigers of Elam (LTTE) can present an al Qaeda naval arm
with a valuable source to train their own experts for maritime
terrorism. The knowledge and combat experience of the maritime
branch of the LTTE, the "Sea Tigers" will certainly
be of primary assistance, once the command decision for action
timing is right. This, based on the current developments in
the Horn of Africa and both NATO and American military predicaments,
in Iraq and Afghanistan with forces already extremely mission-stretched,
seems virtually 'round the corner'. As matters stand time is
of essence to act decisively-without delay to prevent a new
catastrophe in the region.
Read David Eshel's past commentary here
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