|  Over
the past two years, US relations with former Soviet Central
Asia nations have collapsed, with Uzbekistan removing US Air
Force air bases in 2005. For the United States be able to rapidly
deploy troops to Middle East and Asian contingency locations,
or have Air Force theater strike capability in the future, the
US will need new Central Asian allies soon. One of these potential
allies could perhaps become Turkmenistan. There are indications,
that following two decades of isolationist policies of Saparmurat
Niyazov's iron rule, a new era may start in this former Soviet
republic. With the death of Niyazov, last December, the new
Turkmenistan President, Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov, has already
signaled his openness for liberalization.
Although it might be too early to assess what this means to
his view on relations with the United States and the West, analysts
already contemplate this nation, based strategically along the
Caspian, Afghanistan and Iran, becoming a potential ally. But
not only the US has interest in Turkmenistan; its huge large
untapped natural gas reserves (estimated at 2 trillion cubic
meters) are of substantial interest to Russia and Europe. Until
now, Turkmenistan is selling the bulk of its natural gas to
Gazprom, the dominating Russian oil cartel, for processing so
that the Russians can sell Turkmenistan natural gas to other
countries. It would be much of advantage for the Turkmen to
have an alternative shipping route for its natural gas via a
pipeline through the Caspian Sea and tap into a new pipeline
that could end up in Europe, thereby freeing Eastern Europe
of the tyranny of Gazprom. Its geopolitical status as a stable
neutral country bordering Iran and Afghanistan also offers considerable
strategic advantages.
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there are other important assets at stake. The former Soviet
Republic used Turkmen air bases as springboard for its 1979
invasion into Afghanistan. Some of these were extended into
strategic air bases and could be used by US Air Force deployments
in the region. Mary air base (also sometimes referred to by
its pre-Soviet name of Merv is located just 60 kilometers north
of the Afghan border in the Murgab river valley and is the largest
airbase in Central Asia. Other bases could become available
at Ashgabat, Nebit-dag and Serdar. To win over the government,
Washington could offer financial incentives in the form of loans,
foreign investment and increased access to the IMF and the World
Bank. America could also ease Turkmenistan's security concerns
by strengthening military ties in return for the use of Turkmen
airspace airbases.
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The US aims to shift its logistical workload carried
by Uzbekistan's Karshi-Kanabad airbase (K-2) eastwards,
which may indicate a clear shift in focus to the Caspianm
environment..
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 In
July 2005, after the war in Afghanistan and Iraq saw an indefinite
troop presence of U.S. forces in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting
at its summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, urged them to set a timetable
for withdrawing their troops from member states. The SCO incorporates
the Peoples Republic of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Since then, Uzbekistan has asked
the U.S. to leave the important Karshi-Kanabad (K2) Airbase.
Accordingly, the Pentagon has expressed growing reservations
over the future of US air and military bases in central Asia.
Even the US major strategic air base at Manas Kyrgyzstan is
coming under pressure. The landlocked, but strategically located
Kyrgyzstan has emerged as Washington's sole front-line state
for confronting terrorism in Afghanistan and Manas
airbase, located strategically close to the Chinese border
of Xinjiang, is being critical to U.S. counter-terrorism strategy
in Central and South Asia and has been a major asset for US
forces in the region. But last December a serious incident at
Manas, when a U.S. serviceman, from the base, fatally shot a
Kyrgyz civilian at a checkpoint near the base, now threatens
Washington's sole remaining military facility in the former
Soviet Union.
 K-2
air base closure seems not to have had a drastic impact on US
operations in southern Central Asia. The Afghan Bagram airbase
near Kabul started receiving greater traffic, although not always
fully secure for sustained operations. But the US aims to shift
its logistical workload carried by K-2 eastwards to the Caspian
region. Reports circulate already that the US will replace K-2
activities with a new airbase situated either at Nasosnaya near
Baku, or Ganca in western Azerbaijan, which may indicate a clear
shift in focus to the Caspianm environment. Perhaps significantly,
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov visited Washington
soon after the K-2 eviction notice was served. US re-engagement
in the Caspian would constitute a reversion to its pre-11 September
regional policy. This prioritized the Caucasian states, firstly
as a means to counter Russia’s tendency to view the region
as its exclusive domain, and, secondly, to secure East–West
hydrocarbon extraction and transit corridors that usefully avoided
both Russia and Iran. A further move into Turkmenistan could
complete this strategic deployment.
Refocusing on the Caspian basin would make sense in the context
of the maturation of its major hydrocarbon extraction and transit
projects. The giant offshore Kashagan oilfield in Kazakhstan
will be on stream by 2007, and should be able to link with the
newly completed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline soon afterwards. Moreover, the South Caucasus Pipeline
project, currently under construction, is intended to link the
vast Central Asian and Caspian natural gas reservoirs with the
growing markets of Central and Eastern Europe. Although the
Caspian basin's significance as a global supplier of oil and
gas should not be overstated, a strengthened US and Euro-Atlantic
geopolitical presence in the region will provide additional
security functions to combat terrorist activity directed at
offshore oil facilities, strengthen commercial ties and offset
China's rapid emergence as a major commercial player in the
Caspian basin.
Indeed, China has become a major player in this region. In
a successful bid to tap Kazakhstan’s oil, China’s
state owned CITIC Group has recently won approval from the Kazakhstani
government to buy the Karazhambas oil field (owned by Nations
Energy of Canada) located near Aqtua on the Caspian Sea. This
deal, worth US2$ billion, follows another bid, when Kazakhstan’s
president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, approved the sale of Petrokazakhstan
to China National Petroleum (CNOOC) in 2005. China is aware,
as does the Anglo-American axis that energy is the key to its
own national security, and China’s power elite is willing
to resort to dramatic measures for every drop of oil and every
watt of electricity.
Moreover, barely acknowledged by the Western media, both China
and Russia have conducted war games in Central Asia, in collaboration
with their own coalition partners. Of special interest are these
activities in Central Asia, under which military exercises involving
the participation of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
are conducted under the Collective Security Treaty Organization,
(CSTO). The Peoples Republic of China and Kazakhstan have also
initiated war games last August. A similar operation was conducted
last year by the PRC and Tajikistan, under the code-named "Cooperation-2006".
The fact is that in recent years, China has sought to make it
presence felt in Central Asia to secure its strategic, economic
and geo-political interests. Geographically, China is contiguous
to three Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan - and its Turkic Muslim population in the north-western
region of Xinjiang shares common history, tradition and culture
with all the five former Soviet, central Asian republics.
Russia is also stepping up its military presence in this region.
In late September, Russia conducted air war exercises over a
large part of its territory, extending from the the Saratov
Air Base in the Volga region, to the very frontiers of Alaska
and North America. These war games already prompted the scrambling
of NORAD fighter planes. Last October 2006, in the latest round
of Central Asian war games under CSTO auspices, joint Russian-Kyrgyz
war exercises were held at Russia's Kant airbase located some
30 km. from the Kyrgyz capital. Officially described as an "anti-terror
drill", these high profile exercises involved the deployment
of Russian and Kyrgyz special forces units.
Russia's top brass and defense minister Sergei Ivanov were
in attendance for the launching of the event. Reports indicate,
that Russia's 201st motorized infantry division in Tajikistan
planned to redeploy its helicopters and planes, sofar using
parts of Dushanbe airport, to the newly reconstructed Aini airbase,
sharing its facilities with the Indian air forceMiG-29 stationed
there.
There is a consistent pattern to this recent development. These
war games are not isolated events. They are part of a carefully
coordinated endeavor, in response to the US-NATO military build-up
in the region and should also be considered as acts of deterrence,
intended to display military capabilities in deterring military
action by a US led coalition.
What is of growing concern to the Pentagon seems to be Russia's
recent upsurge in military activities in sensitive regions and
Central Asia seems to be Russia's high priority strategic objective.
Three star general Michael Maples, director of the Pentagon's
Defense Intelligence Agency, warned that the Russian Army's
combat and theater-level training is now at its highest since
the break-up of the Soviet Union. The United States is concerned
because the Russian Defense Ministry is focusing on rearmament,
modernization of available weapons and efforts to revive the
defense industry. On February 7, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister
and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov addressed the State Duma,
the lower house of parliament, at the Government Hour and said
his Ministry would receive 821 billion rubles ($30.98 billion,
or Euro 23.87 billion) in 2007, of which over 144 billion rubles
($5.43 billion, or Euro 4.19 billion) will be spent on the acquisition
of new weapons. It is obvious that Russia's theoretical opponents
are worried about its enhanced defense capability, which seems
to confirm the fact that Sergei Ivanov's statements are not
a mere rhetoric. Central Asia will no doubt remain high in focus
during the next few months.
Read David Eshel's past commentary here
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